IVF Success Rates by Age: What the Latest CDC Data Shows

Age is the single strongest predictor of IVF success in the CDC’s data. This guide sets out the latest national figures by age group, how they have changed over three reporting years, and how widely individual clinics vary within each age band. All figures are for patients using their own eggs and come from the CDC National ART Surveillance System, reporting year 2022.^[1]

National live-birth rates by age

The CDC’s most complete success measure is the share of intended egg retrievals that led to a live birth. It counts every cycle started, including cycles that never reached embryo transfer. Why this measure matters.

Age group	Intended retrievals	Live births per intended retrieval	New patients: live birth after all retrievals
Under 35	62,780	49.7%	60.8%
35–37	41,504	36.3%	49.9%
38–40	41,475	23.1%	35.2%
Over 40	36,439	7.7%	13.4%

Under 35, about half of intended retrievals led to a live birth (49.7%). Over 40, the figure was 7.7%.^[1] The drop is steepest after 37: the 38–40 group’s rate (23.1%) is well under two-thirds of the 35–37 group’s (36.3%).^[1]

The pattern matches what professional bodies describe about fertility and age: egg quantity and quality decline over time, and the decline speeds up from the mid-30s.^[4]

Why cycles fail earlier at older ages

Part of the gap appears before any embryo is transferred. The share of intended retrievals in which no eggs were retrieved was 4.7% under 35, against 15.2% over 40.^[1] This is one reason per-transfer rates, which leave out cycles that stopped early, can look much higher than per-retrieval rates for older patients. Over 40, the per-transfer rate was 25.4%, more than three times the per-intended-retrieval rate.^[1]

Older patients also need more cycles on average. New patients under 35 had 1.2 intended retrievals each in the reporting period; those over 40 had 1.6.^[1]

Three-year trend

National live births per intended retrieval have been broadly stable across the last three CDC reporting years:^[1][2]

Year	Total ART cycles	Under 35	35–37	38–40	Over 40
2020	326,471	51.1%	37.1%	23.7%	7.6%
2021	413,776	50.8%	36.4%	23.4%	7.9%
2022	435,426	49.7%	36.3%	23.1%	7.7%

The number of cycles grew faster than the success rates moved. Total reported ART cycles rose from 326,471 in 2020 to 435,426 in 2022.^[1][2] Treatment volume grew; per-cycle outcomes stayed roughly the same.

How much clinics vary within each age group

National averages hide wide differences between clinics. The table below covers clinics with at least 20 intended retrievals in the age group, a size where a single extra birth moves the rate by no more than five points. It shows the middle half of clinics (25th to 75th percentile) and the median.^[1]

Age group	Clinics included	25th percentile	Median clinic	75th percentile
Under 35	383	40.9%	48.9%	55.9%
35–37	347	28.6%	36.1%	42.3%
38–40	347	17.0%	22.7%	27.8%
Over 40	296	5.5%	8.2%	12.0%

Fewer clinics clear the 20-retrieval bar in older age groups. That reflects both smaller patient numbers and the CDC’s suppression of very small counts. The spread between the 25th and 75th percentile clinics is large in every group. Some of that spread reflects differences in which patients clinics accept and how they treat them, not just quality of care. The CDC warns that comparing clinics may not be meaningful for this reason.^[3]

The FertilityList Score compares each clinic with the national rate for its own patients’ ages, and shrinks small samples toward the average, to make comparisons fairer.

Success rates by age in the largest states

Every state page on FertilityList shows its clinics’ median rate by age next to the national figure. The states with the most reporting clinics:

• California: 85 reporting clinics
• New York: 44 reporting clinics
• Texas: 44 reporting clinics
• Florida: 26 reporting clinics
• Illinois: 21 reporting clinics
• New Jersey: 14 reporting clinics
• Washington: 12 reporting clinics
• North Carolina: 11 reporting clinics

What the age bands do and do not tell you

The CDC groups patients into four bands: under 35, 35–37, 38–40 and over 40. These bands are wide. A 41-year-old and a 45-year-old fall in the same “over 40” group, even though professional bodies describe fertility as continuing to decline year by year in that range.^[4] Similarly, the “under 35” group includes people in their twenties and people about to turn 35. When you see a figure for your band, remember that it averages over everyone in it.

The age used is the patient’s age when the cycle started. For patients using donor eggs, the CDC reports outcomes separately, because the donor’s age, not the recipient’s, drives most of the egg-related chance of success. Those donor-egg figures are not part of the tables above. See donor egg IVF success rates.

Finally, these are outcomes for patients who chose IVF and were accepted for treatment by a clinic. They are not population-wide fertility rates, and they say nothing about the chance of conceiving without treatment.

Reading these numbers for yourself

• Use your own age group. A clinic’s overall average mixes all ages, and clinics serve different age mixes.
• Look at the number of cycles. Clinic pages show how many intended retrievals stand behind each rate. Small numbers are unstable.
• Check more than one year. Each clinic page shows a three-year trend.
• Ask clinics about their own data. A clinic can explain how its patient population compares with the national picture. See questions to ask a fertility clinic.

Figures describe outcomes for past patients and are not a forecast for any individual. Discuss your own situation with a qualified clinician.

Browse clinics by state to see age-specific rates for each clinic.